制度差异、“一带一路”倡议与中国大型对外投资——基于投资边际、模式与成败的三重视角

本文基于2005—2016年中国609个企业2 440个大型对外投资微观样本，全面考察正式与非正式制度差异对企业投资边际、模式与成败的影响。研究发现：正式制度差异对投资规模化的影响不大，但显著影响投资多元化。企业为了避免正式制度差异带来的管理风险，倾向于选择全资股权结构，但企业选择绿地投资还是跨国并购并不受到正式制度差异的影响。相比之下，非正式制度差异的影响更为广泛。无论是正式制度差异还是非正式制度差异，均会显著增加企业投资的失败概率。进一步研究发现，“一带一路”倡议主要对正式制度差异存在优化互补效应。研究结论表明，夯实“一带一路”倡议，尤其大力发展与沿线国家的文化深度交流，有助于企业更快、更好地走出去。     

The impact on stock prices of deferral and elimination of internal control audit requirement for small firms

This paper examines the cumulative market reaction to the events related to deferral of internal control audit requirement under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and its elimination under the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 for nonaccelerated filers (small firms). We document that small firms experienced negative cumulative abnormal returns around these events; and the differences between the cumulative abnormal returns for small firms and the two control groups (accelerated and large accelerated filers) were negative and significant at the 1% level. These results support the notion that market participants value the reliability of financial information irrespective of the firm size. Within the small firms, we find no firm characteristic significantly explains the market reaction to the events considered. That is, all small firms lost market value in reaction to the events that delayed and eliminated their internal control audit requirement.     

颠覆性技术识别与预测方法研究进展

为了把握颠覆性技术识别与预测方法研究进展，首先对颠覆性的内涵、特征和运行机制进行论述；然后，通过对已有文献进行系统梳理，将识别与预测方法分为5类，分别展开详述；最后，对各类方法进行比较分析。研究发现，已有颠覆性技术识别与预测方法仍处于发展的初期阶段，所有识别研究方法均围绕颠覆性技术的外部影响或内在特征中的某一方面展开，并未将二者有机结合起来。未来，应综合把握颠覆性技术内外部特征，构建全面、系统的识别与预测框架。     

普惠金融与县域资金外流：减贫还是致贫*——基于中国592个国家级贫困县的研究

本文利用全国592个国家级贫困县的数据，采用空间计量模型实证分析了普惠金融对县域资金外流的影响，并验证了贫困县资金外流是否会产生致贫效应。本文研究发现：如果普惠金融只注重解决贫困地区对金融机构的接触性排斥，会进一步加剧资金外流，对减贫产生负向影响，即存在显著的致贫效应。这种致贫效应具有明显的空间外溢性，邻近县域的贫困状况在很大程度上会彼此“传染”，并具有空间衰减特征的地理边界。因而需要客观认识普惠金融的本质，有针对性地选择恰当有效的实施载体，解决好对信贷产品等关键金融服务的使用性排斥问题。     

产业融合对中国装备制造业创新效率的影响:结构嵌入的调节作用

从理论和实证两个方面探讨了产业融合对中国装备制造业创新效率的影响，以及网络中心性和网络异质性对二者关系的调节作用。基于2006—2015年省际装备制造7个子行业面板数据，采用ISCNFI指数测度模型和基于产出距离函数的超越对数前沿分析方法，分别测度装备制造业产业融合程度及创新效率变化情况，进而利用面板回归模型对理论假设进行实证检验。结果显示：产业融合程度与中国装备制造业创新效率存在倒“U”型曲线关系，即随着产业融合程度提升，中国装备制造业创新效率呈现出先上升后下降的变化趋势；网络中心性强化了产业融合对装备制造业创新效率的提升作用，而网络异质性削弱了产业融合对装备制造业创新效率的提升作用。     

Economic Impacts of the Possible China–US Trade War

This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade.     

同群效应与公司研发*——来自中国的证据

本文研究了“同群公司”的研发支出对公司自身研发行为的影响。研究发现，同群公司研发支出越多，公司自身研发支出也越多。进一步研究发现，在公司与同群公司地理距离较近或同群公司分析师覆盖程度较高情况下，同群公司研发支出与公司自身研发支出的正相关关系更强。此外，同群公司研发支出会提高公司自身研发支出与未来业绩的正相关程度。研究表明，公司会学习同群公司的研发决策，进而改变其自身研发决策，呈现显著的研发支出同群效应；且公司信息解读成本较低时，研发支出同群效应更为显著。本文不仅丰富了关于研发支出影响因素的研究，还拓展了对研发溢出效应的研究。本文的研究结论对公司制定研发决策具有重要指导意义。     

智能生产与服务网络下新型产业创新平台运行模式研究

在智能生产与服务网络化背景下，传统产业创新平台技术含量低、创新积极性不高、持续升级能力弱、成果转化效率低等矛盾日益凸显。针对该问题，提出了智能生产与服务网络下的新型产业创新平台运行模式。首先从科技支撑、智能生产与服务组织、感知与信息传输、基础设施和平台规制角度研究其组织结构，并从个性化定制、模块化集成和全程价值链供给角度研究其功能结构；然后从协同创新、导向、风险和产业生态进化角度研究其保障机制；最后从市场化角度研究其运行路径。通过研究智能生产与服务网络下的新型产业创新平台运行模式，为实施传统产业高端化、推动行业进步、促进经济发展提供参考与借鉴。     

地理邻近与知识产权——基于中国1 331项新能源技术发明专利的实证研究

虽然远程交流技术快速发展，但现有研究表明专利发明在很大程度上仍依赖于信息的地理邻近。以中国1992-2009年的1 331个新能源发明专利为研究对象，运用Jung Wonn,Jaffe等的实验设计方法，研究了专利引证的地理邻近是否会随时间递进而增大。结果表明，个人、大学、公司及其它种类发明专利引证的地理邻近会随着时间变化而增大，而政府受到的影响较小。另外，由于区域城市分属不同省份，因此并不能证明区域专利引证的地理邻近也会随着时间变化而增大。     

What Makes Firms Competitive? States,Markets, and Organisational Embeddedness in Competitive Firm Restructuring in Postsocialist Economies

The prevailing transitions literature suggests that dynamic firms in postsocialist economies are the result of macroinstitutional reforms leading to the making of markets. This article builds on work in comparative political economy and economic sociology to show that the degree of competitive behaviour of postsocialist firms is determined not by the existence of general market institutions alone but by the kinds of organisational allies firms possess and the kinds of markets they compete in. Using firm survey data across 28 postsocialist economies, the article examines the determinants of competitive restructuring by firms, including product innovation, standards upgrade, financial transparency, and investments in research and development. The article confirms insights from comparative political economy which suggest that dynamic enterprise sectors emerge when governance is effective. However, at the firm level, the article finds that transnational ties and supportive policy environments are most significant in the making of dynamic postsocialist enterprises. The article also highlights important regional variation in firm behaviour and discusses the relationship between institutional frameworks, organisational embeddedness, and firm restructuring in postsocialist economies.